Bitcoin's Gold Price
| Gold (USD/oz), COMEX | Bitcoin (USD) | Bitcoin's Gold Price | Date | Updated |
|---|
| $5,206 | $66,022 | 12.7 oz | 2026-02-25 | 2026-02-25 13:24 UTC |
About the Trendline
The orange curve and shaded bands above are from
Bitcoin's Gold Price: History, Model, and Falsifiable Predictions through 2035
(Biggs, 2026), which fits a saturating exponential model to the Bitcoin/Gold ratio.
The model predicts Bitcoin will pass through 40–45 oz of Gold by the mid-2030s, converging toward a long-run ~2% annual outperformance of gold due to relative scarcity.
The bands widen before 2023 (volatile early era) and tighten after (reduced volatility regime).
The chart below tracks whether the prediction is holding up.
Live Model Scorecard
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Out-of-sample months | 14 |
| Latest monthly z-score | -2.22 |
| Cumulative sum (Sn) | +0.93 |
| Reduced volatility margin | +30.9 |
| Trajectory margin | +58.6 |
| Status | Green — Both hypotheses supported |
Zone definitions
| Zone | Meaning |
|---|
| Green |
Both trajectory and reduced volatility hypotheses supported |
| Yellow |
Reduced volatility hypothesis rejected; trajectory intact |
| Red |
Both hypotheses rejected |
Each month, the model's prediction error is standardized and added to a running total.
If that total drifts outside a boundary, the hypothesis is rejected at α = 0.05.
Boundaries are calibrated via Monte Carlo (2M simulations, 120 monthly looks) and account
for the observed boom-bust autocorrelation (ρ = 0.90).
See Section 10 of the paper for full methodology.